Last updated: January 13, 2021
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U.S. Covid-19 Vaccine Campaign Progress (or lack thereof)

The U.S. Covid-19 vaccination campaign began in earnest in December, 2020 after the dual emergency use authorizations of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna mRNA vaccine candidates. The vaccines contain “a small piece of the Covid-19 virus’s mRNA that instructs cells in the body to make the virus’s distinctive ‘spike’ protein. After a person receives this vaccine, their body produces copies of the spike protein, which does not cause disease, but triggers the immune system to learn to react defensively, producing an immune response against SARS-CoV-2.”

Though the vaccines were developed and approved in record time, the vaccine distribution campaign is off to a slow and concerning start. The federal government’s Operation Warp Speed fell far short of its initial goal to deliver 20 million vaccinations by the end of December, and drastic improvements in distribution will be necessary to hit the new Biden administration’s goal of 100 million vaccine doses in his first 100 days.

Estimated U.S. Percent to Goal of Achieving Herd Immunity

At the current vaccination rate, the U.S. is not projected to achieve herd immunity until October 14, 2022.

The majority of public health experts have estimated general herd immunity is achieved somewhere around 70% protection, though some experts have recently estimated that higher protection rates are necessary.

The percent to herd immunity calculations presented in the figure above assume this 70% protection rate and some form of protection against reinfection from Covid-19 antibodies. While the true herd immunity protection threshold may be higher than 70%, the true number of U.S. Covid-19 cases may also be substantially underestimated.

Such uncertainty could lead to herd immunity being achieved either more quickly or more slowly than projected above. Thus, this figure is meant to illustrate a rough approximation of the country’s progress towards herd immunity, rather than a definitive projection.

What is more certain is that to achieve herd immunity by Covid-19 infection alone, as some fringe public health commentators and right-wing politicians have previously suggested the U.S. do, approximately 10,139,252 more Americans would die!

Population with confirmed Covid-19 diagnosis to date

Time Series of Daily Covid-19 Cases Across U.S. States

Time Series of Daily Covid-19 Cases Proportional to U.S. State Populations

Questions or comments? Please reach out!

Data Sources:
- NY Times Covid-19 github repo
- NY Times vaccine distribution data
- CDC vaccine distribution data

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